In recent years, the Legislature has ed several laws to increase housing density across the state.
But a ruling by a Los Angeles County judge and pushback from the California Coastal Commission may slow that momentum.
Both developments highlight perhaps the most disputed notion in the politics of housing — that producing more market-rate housing will lower sale prices and rents.
That has been a key argument by many housing advocates over the years as home prices in California have soared and affordability has shrunk. But the contention that simply more supply will substantially change that has been challenged constantly.
Affordable housing was central to a ruling last week by Los Angeles County Superior Court Judge Curtis Kin, who declared a law that could increase housing density in most neighborhoods was unconstitutional. The law approved in 2021 under Senate Bill 9 by state Sen. Toni Atkins, D-San Diego, allows lots zoned for single-family homes to be split, with duplexes on each parcel.
That means the number of units on such lots could quadruple. One of the stated purposes of the bill was to provide more affordable housing. The law is often described as ending single-family-home zoning in California.
Opponents of SB 9 maintain the law would increase traffic congestion, overburden infrastructure and destroy neighborhood character. Some residents simply don’t want more people in their neighborhoods.
Five cities — Del Mar, Redondo Beach, Carson, Torrance and Whittier — challenged SB 9, contending it illegally supersedes local zoning authority and doesn’t necessarily provide affordable housing. Kin’s ruling applies only to those cities, but if appealed and upheld, it would apply to more than 121 charter cities — including San Diego, Los Angeles and San Francisco — that have certain prerogatives when some conflicts with state laws arise.
“Because the provisions of SB 9 are not reasonably related and sufficiently narrowly tailored to the explicit stated purpose of that legislation — namely, to ensure access to affordable housing — SB 9 cannot stand,” Kin wrote.
Unlike some other state and local laws aimed at boosting housing density, SB 9 does not mandate any units be restricted to low-income residents.
“To justify SB 9’s interference with municipal concerns of land use and zoning regulations, the legislature cannot rely on a potential, eventual decrease in prices resulting from increasing housing supply to demonstrate SB 9 would increase the supply of affordable (i.e., below-market-rate) housing,” Kin added.
Attorney General Rob Bonta’s office said the state “will consider all options in defense of SB 9.”
Chris Elmendorf, a law professor at UC Davis, told the Los Angeles Times he did not agree with Kim’s ruling and that the Legislature could adjust the law to address the decision. Atkins said in a statement she is considering doing so. Getting SB 9 approved was a hard-fought battle and required changes. Amending it now may not be easy.
“The goal of SB 9 has always been to increase equity and accessibility in our neighborhoods while growing our housing supply and production across the state,” Atkins said, adding that she believed Kin’s decision was “very disappointing and sadly misguided.”
The ruling came as a surprise to an attorney representing the cities.
“We knew the stakes were high, but we also knew that it was an uphill battle,” Pam Lee, an attorney with Aleshire & Wyndner, told KQED in San Francisco. “So many of the (housing) laws that have been challenged — in particular, cases against charter cities — have just not been met with a favorable fate.”
Meanwhile, the Coastal Commission has ramped up opposition to legislation streamlining projects increasing housing density in the coastal zone.
While many Californians and environmental advocates in particular see the commission as a strong steward of coastal protection, some lawmakers have been criticizing the agency as anti-development — and a hurdle to affordable housing near the seashore. Commission officials reject that label.
Last year, a bill to limit the commission’s power to review certain projects was initially opposed by the commission. After Assembly Bill 423 was changed to prohibit development in areas subject to sea-level rise, the commission went neutral on the measure, which was then ed and signed into law.
This year, Politico reports that the commission has been battling against bills by Sen. Catherine Blakespear, D-Encinitas.
Politico suggested the commission influenced committee decisions to basically gut a Blakespear measure that would have made it easier to build accessory dwelling units near the coast and turned another measure creating deadlines for the commission into a study.
Still advancing, however, is a bill by Assemblymember David Alvarez, D-San Diego, for developer density bonuses in the coastal zone allowing the construction of more units if some are designated for low-income residents.
The value of requiring rent-restricted units for low- or moderate-income people in return for larger projects is frequently debated, depending on the number of affordable units produced. But that argument pales in intensity to the disagreement over whether increasing market-rate housing alone impacts affordability.
Richard T. Carson, a UC San Diego economics professor, just this week suggested there could be “real housing issues causing many in the region considerable pain.
“But there is no serious academic research showing that building sizable numbers of housing units, almost exclusively at the high end of the market, makes housing more affordable over a time period relevant for current residents,” Carson wrote in a column published by the Times of San Diego.
“That is because,” Carson added, “the process of housing filtering down to a level affordable to lower income households is quite slow.”
There have been signs recently that increased apartment construction in San Diego and across the nation may have moderated rent increases, but doesn’t necessarily make the housing substantially more affordable.
Recent studies show “increases in housing supply slow the growth in rents in the region,” three New York University professors concluded, according to an abstract of their review. “In some circumstances, new construction also reduces rents or rent growth in the surrounding area.”
Housing affordability is determined by many factors beyond government policy over density — land costs, construction costs, cost of materials, the state of the economy, mortgage rates and more.
Regardless of what happens with economic conditions, SB 9 or the jousting between the Coastal Commission and Legislature, the argument over the impact of boosting the housing supply will remain.
