Win or lose, the 2025 Padres should be entertaining on most days or nights.
Jackson Merrill, by himself, will command attention.
Wired differently from many big leaguers, the left-handed hitter can read and ambush pitchers as Padres star Adrian Gonzalez did 15 years ago, when he led a $38.6-million payroll to 90 victories, and 19 years ago, when he helped power the franchise to its most recent National West title.
A great show of Merrill’s rare ability was his home run off Dodgers reliever Blake Treinen late in last year’s West race.
Treinen’s fastball was between Merrill and home plate, more than inch off the corner. Then it was in the right-field seats at Petco Park, tying the game.
Merrill has power to all fields, as Gonzalez did. He’s as smooth as Gonzalez, but runs much faster, plays a position and has a faster bat.
Age doesn’t matter so much when a hitter has special wiring. Merrill won’t turn 22 until next month.
“I love him, he’s a superstar,” a non-Padres MLB scout told me this week. “The sky is the limit for him. A lot of his underlying metrics would what he did last year as a rookie. I don’t think he was a fluke. He’s an absolute stud. He’s a franchise-type player. He’s incredibly talented.”
In November, I lobbied in this space for the Padres to sign Merrill to an extension. Given how proactive President of Baseball Operation A.J. Preller has been and tha tPreller rebuffed the Nationals’ attempt three summers ago to get Merrill in the trade for Juan Soto, it speaks well of Merrill that a deal didn’t get done. Clearly, he believes in himself. That kind of confidence recalls former MLB star catcher Jason Varitek and Soto before each one became an alpha on a World Series champion.
Fernando Tatis Jr.? He’s still fun to watch, and at 26, still young.
Luis Arraez? He’s the game’s best singles hitter against right-handed pitching. A handful more walks per month, from Arraez, would be welcomed even by old-school lovers of bat-to-ball prowess.
The season ahead looks promising for Manny Machado. Early last season, he got a lot of rest to cope with an elbow issue, and that seemed to pay off down the stretch. Machado turned pro at 17. He has put a lot of wear on his body. Last year was something of a physical recharge that may again benefit Machado, who’ll turn 33 in July.
Few MLB rotations have a better “stuff” tandem that Padres co-aces Dylan Cease and Michael King.
With Yu Darvish sidelined by an elbow injury, the No. 3 starter is Nick Pivetta. The addition of Pivetta in February, via a four-year, $55-million contract, was Preller’s most expensive g of an outside free-agent pitcher since he got James Shields in his first offseason. Pivetta has consumed 140-180 innings each of the past four years. His strikeout rate over that span edges that of great Phillies ace Zack Wheeler.
So on most days when Mike Shildt makes out the lineup, Padres fans stand to see no less than an entertaining quartet of position players —Merrill, Tatis Jr., Machado and Arraez — and a starting pitcher with a high strikeout rate.
The concern is depth.
The odds are against the Padres hitting the jackpot with as many low-cost depth players as they did last year.
Jurickson Profar appeared unconscious for long stretches of 2024. Earning himself a $41 million raise on his $1 million salary, Profar set career marks in on-base percentage (.380), home runs (24) and walks (76) at 31.
Somehow, he sustained no severe injury amid being plunked a league-high 18 times.
Kyle Higashioka’s season was as impressive as Profar’s, in its own way.
The 34-year-old platoon catcher displayed a stunning knack for pulling fastballs and sliders just far enough to clear the left-field wall.
It was unthinkable to me that the season profile of any player with a substantial expected home run total would show Petco Park as ultra-favorable to his power, but that’s what Higashoika’s 2024 season churned up. The righty’s 22 expected home runs for Petco — the place former Padres righty slugger Luke Voit described as graveyard for hitters — was matched only by Philadelphia’s famously cozy venue.
Higashioka hit 20 home runs all told, including the playoffs, and took over the starting job down the stretch. He earned himself an $11-million raise raise on his $2.2-million salary.
Infielder Donovan Solano, a dangerous hitter against a wide variety of pitchers, outperformed his tiny salary at an exponential rate. During the season, Preller found an ultta-bargain starting pitcher in Martin Perez. And he deepened the bullpen by trading for three relievers who all delivered above-average results.
This year’s low-cost depth additions included veteran infielder Jose Iglesias, Cactus League DH star Gavin Sheets, well-respected veteran outfielder Jason Heyward, the Machado-recommended and much-respected Yuli Gurriel, 41, and the defensively adept catching tandem of Elias Dias and Martin Maldonado. Advanced prospect/left-fielder Tirso Ornelas, 25, figures to get a shot at some point, if he’s not traded.
If this team’s best low-cost addition proves to be lefty pitcher Kyle Hart, 32, the MLB scout won’t be surprised.
“Pitchers like that, those are the kinds of moves that make sense if you’re the Padres,” he said. “These pitchers that kind of reinvent themselves in Asia are interesting. Best case, he’s a fourth or fifth starter, but at ($1.5 million), that would be a ton of value.”
My guess is the depth won’t be as good as last year, when the Padres won 93 games, so I have the Padres winning 83 to 88 games.
Beating the Diamondbacks and other wild-card contenders will be more important to the Padres’ playoff chances than beating the Dodgers.
The Diamondbacks look like the Padres’ No. 1 rival. Not far behind are the Cubs, Brewers and Giants.
Like the Padres, the Diamondbacks appear top-heavy. Their answer to Merrill or Tatis is speed-and-power star Corbin Carroll, who was terrific two years ago but had a miserable first half to last season before rallying.
“Carroll’s looked great this spring,” the scout said. “If he’s back to his 2023 level, they’re a scary group with that starting pitching. I would give the Diamondbacks the nod over the Padres, but it’s not by a lot. The Giants are below both of them, although they had a great spring, and their starting pitching depth actually looks pretty good.”
Baseball being goofy, here’s a random piece of trivia for Padres fans to chew on — along with Cracker Jack — during the 2025 home opener Thursday against the visiting Braves.
In the past three even-numbered years – 2020, 2022 and 2024 – the Padres reached the playoffs. In the odd years that followed, they fell short. Machado and friends need to embrace the odd.
