In evaluating college quarterbacks, NFL teams are digging deep to try to understand the why of their results.
A fascinating tidbit comes from Greg Cosell, who has broken down football plays for decades with help from NFL coaches in his role with NFL Films.
Cosell said they’ve found an interesting link relating to quarterback sack rates in both college and the NFL.
“One thing that stands out and that holds true for teams that have done these deep studies is that quarterbacks that get sacked a lot in college get sacked a lot in the NFL,” Cosell told the “Ross Tucker Football Podcast” this month.
Shedeur Sanders is among the top quarterback prospects in this year’s draft class. Yet he also took many sacks in his two seasons with Colorado following two at Jackson State.
Colorado’s offensive line was subpar in Sanders’ two seasons in Boulder, and that’s a highly pertinent fact that no football coach scout would dispute.
NFL teams must now try to figure out to what extent Sanders was responsible for the high sack totals, and if the curious college-to-NFL sack-rate link will apply to him.
Cosell said he’s familiar with NFL studies that go back 25 years on QB sack data.
Last year’s draft class included Caleb Williams, another top quarterback prospect who’d taken a high number of sacks in college.
The Bears drafted Williams first overall, choosing him over the likes of Jayden Daniels, who would go second and lead the Washington Commanders to the NFC championship game.
USC’s offensive lines were subpar, contributing to Williams’ high sack rate in the two seasons following his transfer from Oklahoma.
With the Bears, whose offense line was below average, Williams again hit the ground often. He took 68 sacks, the most in the NFL.
It was an astounding total. Next was C.J. Stroud, the second-year Texans starter. He took 16 fewer sacks than Williams. Both QBs played all 17 games.
Eager to untrack Williams, whose four-year, $39.5-million contract is fully guaranteed, the Bears fired their head coach and offensive coordinator and hired as their head coach the former Detroit Lions OC Ben Johnson, under whom veteran quarterback Jared Goff revived his career.
Johnson’s challenge is to get Williams to get the ball out faster. Expect Johnson to ask Williams to risk an occasional interception instead of taking yet another sack.
In addition, the Bears figure to invest heavily in their blocking, something Bill Belichick said last September was long overdue.
Entering the April draft, the Titans, Browns, Giants, Raiders and Jets are among the QB-needy teams that hold a pick in the top seven.
Statistical analysis will be part of their evaluation process.
Consider this: Williams had among the worst college career sack estimated points allowed (EPA) of any quarterback taken in the top three rounds since 2014, according to Scott Barrett of FantasyPoints.com. Sanders’ college sack EPA total is even worse.
Among the other quarterbacks to make Barrett’s list: Christian Hackenberg, Malik Willis, Will Levis, C.J. Beathard, Jacoby Brissett, Desmond Ridder and Hendon Hooker. Brissett has established himself as a good backup, while the others have struggled.
NFL teams try to figure out what college traits and stats correlate to NFL outcomes, and avoid wrongly asg cause to effect. The sack riddle has become one of the more interesting — and significant — pieces in that puzzle.
