There was a time when most high school football coaches countywide would be practicing their oratory skills to convince other coaches that they belonged in the post-season playoffs and where they should be seeded.
Back then, all of the divisions were predetermined going into the season — so you had to just listen to the coaches in that division after the last game and fill in the blanks. Still, very few coaches were pleased and some were terribly disappointed.
Times have changed.
With one game to go in the regular season Friday night, only a handful of teams know for absolutely certain exactly where they’ll be to open the post-season.
At least 64 teams in five divisions know they’ll be playing next week, some with a decent idea in which division but not sure against whom or where.
Del Norte, Poway and Rancho Bernardo are definitely playoff-bound. Not one coach countywide is practicing a speech.
That’s because this year for the first time, the Football Playoff Advisory Committee has decided to go in 100 percent using a Power Ranking system created by CalPreps/MaxPreps. That group closely guards the criteria it uses to rank every one of the section and state teams.
However, strength of schedule appears to be the No. 1 criteria — even over their record.
Winless teams like St. Augustine (ranked No. 35) are guaranteed a post-season berth because of difficulty of their schedule. Then there are teams like Kearny (6-3 but ranked No. 64) that are clinging to the final playoff spot due to a perceived soft schedule.
North County public schools are so strong, only winless Orange Glen (No. 81 out of 87 schools) is on the outside looking in.
The lone exception to going entirely from the Power Rankings? League champions that finish lower than 64th in the overall rankings are entered into the playoffs, replacing the lowest team. Mar Vista (3-6) clinched the Pacific League title but is ranked 78th overall and that’s why Kearny’s position is so precarious.
But coaches can quickly look at the section rankings to see where they stand going into the final game this week, where a win or loss could affect their position depending upon the strength of the opponent.
Rancho Bernardo (7-2), for example, a Top 10 team in the section for much of the season, is sitting at No. 11 heading into the Palomar League finale against Mt. Carmel (No. 24).
To show how the rankings work, the Broncos were No. 10 overall heading into last Thursday’s league championship game against San Marcos, which was No. 6, and the 43-20 loss didn’t affect them much due to San Marcos’ lofty rating (No. 5).
Since the top four teams — now Lincoln, La Costa Canyon, Cathedral Catholic and Mission Hills — will form the Open Division, the Broncos would land the No. 7 seed in Division I with a home game (Seeds 1-4 in D1 get a bye and 5-8 have home games).
“I like it,” said RB coach Eric Weddle, who like Nate Barnett at Del Norte is in his third year while Poway’s Brandon Harris is finishing his first season, meaning none of them have a wealth of knowledge from past schemes.
“The fact it goes year-by-year gives you a true test. Now maybe Divisions 1 and 2 should be that way and Divisions 3-5 slotted because some of the really big schools would have an advantage against those smaller schools.
“We’ll just see how it goes this year.”
Del Norte (6-3) is No. 13 overall, which would make the Nighthawks the No. 9 seed in Division 1. After the expected victory over Ramona last Friday, now Del Norte finishes up with San Marcos on the road.
Again, San Marcos’ strength of schedule doesn’t figure to drop Del Norte out of Division 1 even with a loss. But a win….well, you see how it works.
As for Poway (3-6), the Titans sit at No. 21, which would put them into Division 2 as the No. 5 seed, which carries a home game in the first round of the playoffs, just one spot removed from No. 4 which has a bye.
The narrow 32-25 loss to Torrey Pines last Friday dropped the Titans a spot with a tough Avocado League finale at home against Mission Hills (No. 4 overall). Win that and the Titans are certainly a top four seed in Division 2 with a first round bye.
A loss probably won’t drop them very far, with the probably of a home game the first round remaining.
Or as Weddle says, “we’ll see.”
