Following the assassination attempt on Donald Trump, Republicans and Democrats came together in rare agreement: Everybody needs to tone down the harsh political rhetoric.
“That lasted about 48 hours,” said Carl Luna.
The longtime political science professor has been a fixture in the San Diego political scene and local media for years. For much of that time he has sought to bring more civility and respect into public dialogue.
In other words, he’s been pushing a big rock up a very steep hill. Political attacks seem as sharp and personal — and sometimes threatening — as ever. Threats to politicians have increased locally and nationwide.
Luna, 64, is professor emeritus at San Diego Mesa College, a visiting professor at the University of San Diego, and director of the Institute for Civil Civic Engagement. Given the disquieting state of politics, it seemed like a good time to check in with him.
Right now, he has more on his mind than the level of political rhetoric. He sees the potential for post-election violence — particularly if Donald Trump is elected, protests erupt nationwide, and the new president takes extraordinary measures to deal with them.
“He could call out the Insurrection Act and give the orders to send troops in. . . and then it could escalate,” he said, referring to the 1807 law that allows the president to deploy the military domestically and use it for civilian law enforcement.
He pointed to an intense gaming-out exercise of a second Trump term earlier this year that involved about 175 bipartisan former government officials, retired military officers, political operatives and leaders of veterans’ organizations.
Extensive s of this role-playing were published by several news organizations, including The Atlantic and The Guardian. Among the conclusions were that potential extraconstitutional actions taken by Trump would restrict civil rights and change law enforcement.
“I believe very strongly that, should Trump be elected, we’re going to see a vast change and our democracy will not be what it looks like today,” Christine Todd Whitman, the former Republican governor of New Jersey and former of the Environmental Protection Agency, told The Guardian.
Whitman took part in the Insurrection Act simulation portion of the exercise.
Trump has alluded to the Insurrection Act and has discussed an expanded role for the military in domestic affairs, including mass deportations for undocumented immigrants.
The news organizations noted that in 2020, the Transition Integrity Project examined the idea that Trump might refuse to concede defeat, and, by claiming widespread fraud in mail-in ballots, unleash forces culminating in violence.
“Every implausible detail of the simulations came to in the lead-up to the US Capitol attack on 6 January 2021,” The Guardian wrote.
Luna acknowledged this may all sound alarmist, but said serious people — not crackpot conspiracy theorists — are taking this seriously. He wants officials from college chancellors to Mayor Todd Gloria to Gov. Gavin Newsom to do the same.
“You at least have to think about it,” he said.
Unlike some other analysts, Luna has less concern about violence if Vice President Kamala Harris is elected president.
He believes that, despite a lot of talk, not many people will in what would be a disorganized armed, right-wing revolt.
“I think the risk of violence is lower if (Trump) loses,” Luna said. “The moment he loses, all eyes in the Republican Party — with anybody with a pulse and ambition — are on 2028.”
In that event, he sees a shift away from Trumpism, in part because “Trump is unique.” Luna said rising GOP leaders picking up the pieces may get back to a sense of governing, like they did with the bipartisan border enforcement bill that had life until Trump killed it.
Various dynamics contributed to the current political climate. In part, Luna traces the downbeat trend back a couple of decades ago when both political parties began “holding each other in contempt.” He singled out former Republican House Speaker Newt Gingrich for ushering in “the politics of total destruction.”
“I try to be as balanced as I can, but I don’t see the equivalent on the Democratic side,” Luna said, “because the Democrats are too disorganized to do it. The left of the Democratic Party spent so much fighting the middle of the Democratic Party they didn’t have time to take on anybody else.”
These days, he said, Democrats seem almost entirely focused on winning, not unlike Republicans.
Luna does have some other choice words for local and state Democrats, who he said have lost their way. He mentioned recently ing by a homeless encampment in the Balboa Park area, around the same time the city opened a costly bike lane in the middle of it up Pershing Drive.
“I’m sorry. Bike lanes are a nice idea, but look at the homelessness. This is where Democrats go off the rails,” he said, adding that Democratic-dominated San Diego and California would benefit from a stronger Republican Party “to hold them able.”
Luna attributes much of the problem with today’s politics to Baby Boomers coming into leadership roles, bringing with them a sense of entitlement, win-at-all-cost attitude. He welcomes the coming generational shift to Generation X and Millennials.
“This is, God willing, the last Baby Boomer election, and then maybe things will begin to change over the next 10 years or so,” he said, adding “depending on the outcome of this election.”
Luna is quick to note that times are not as bad as they once were. The U.S. had a Civil War. Federal troops attacked protesting unemployed veterans in the 1930s and intervened against striking workers on various occasions. The Vietnam War and civil rights movement badly divided the country in the 1960s and 1970s. Domestic bombings by left-wing groups during that period were a regular, if not daily, occurrence.
Society is physically healthier; life expectancy is nearly double what it was in 1900. Medical advances continue to cure disease and crime is down. War is a threat, yes, but it always has been. There’s more wealth more equitably spread, though not as much as it should be. Diverse populations increasingly have more say in how things are run.
Luna believes the long-range future of the United States and the world is “going to be pretty good.”
It’s the short term that makes him cranky.
That’s why he calls himself “an angry optimist.”
