What better time to highlight positive climate change developments than just after the hottest day ever recorded on Earth?
Make that two days.
Last Sunday likely set a global heat record, according to Copernicus Climate Change Service, an agency under the European Union. Then Monday happened, with slightly higher temperatures, according to the institution.
The Axios news organization gave some perspective to the historic markers: The two warmest days came in the middle of the planet’s hottest year since at least the pre-industrial era, and likely for at least 100,000 years before that.
Not good. But there was notable upbeat news last week that understandably was overshadowed by the dire reports about the heat records.
The United States is reducing global-warming greenhouse gas emissions at its own record pace, according to projections released Tuesday.
The nation is on track to reduce emissions 38 percent to 56 percent below 2005 levels by 2035, according to a study by the Rhodium Group, an independent research firm that provides annual outlooks for U.S. global-warming emissions under current federal and state policy.
That may be good, but not good enough — for the Paris Accords, anyway.
Under the 2016 international treaty, the U.S. is supposed to achieve a reduction of between 50 percent and 52 percent by 2030. This country is far from alone in falling short.
The Paris agreement’s main target is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels by 2100.
Worldwide emissions were up 1.1 percent last year compared with 2022 levels and 1.5 percent compared with pre-pandemic levels, though that largely continues a 10-year plateau, according to the Dorr School of Sustainability at Stanford University. Still, that hit a record level.
But progress shouldn’t be dismissed. In 2023, U.S. emissions were 18 percent lower than they were in 2005, the Rhodium study said.
Last year, the U.S. reduced emissions after two years of increases. But that didn’t meet climate targets set by the Biden istration.
Nevertheless, the study credited a variety of government actions – particularly those taken by President Joe Biden – for reducing emissions.
“Policies enacted at all levels of government have never been stronger for achieving even deeper cuts to emissions, including the age of the Inflation Reduction Act and Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, adoption of a suite of federal regulations aimed at driving down emissions, and ambitious state action,” the report said.
The study noted that the projected cuts are expected “absent any additional new action.”
That suggests emissions reductions could improve even more — or not. The presidential election may have a lot to do with that.
Vice President Kamala Harris would be expected to build upon Biden’s efforts to reduce emissions. Former President Donald Trump rolled back environmental regulations and figures to do the same if he wins in November.
Whether Democrats or Republicans control Congress (one or both houses) also plays into the uncertainty over climate policy, as does the Supreme Court.
“A substantial portion of the economy-wide emission reductions we project results from regulations, which are drawing the ire of a conservative majority on the Supreme Court highly skeptical of the istrative state,” the Rhodium study said.
Even if more aggressive reductions in emissions occur – and they aren’t deep enough – the Earth’s temperature will continue to rise and wreak havoc. For now, though, climate analysts are appreciating the moment.
“That’s certainly not a level of decarbonization we would have projected a decade ago,” said Ben King, lead author of the study and associate director with Rhodium Group’s energy and climate practice.
Electric vehicles and wind and solar power are mainstream and increasing. Even with reduced government , they likely will continue on an upward trajectory. Besides, it’s not entirely clear what Trump will do if he’s elected.
Regulation rollbacks seem certain, but after years of ridiculing electric vehicles, Trump has softened his tone and then some, The New York Times recently pointed out.
Trump has said, “I’m totally for them,” adding “I’ve driven them and they are incredible.”
The Times noted the shift coincided with increasing friendliness between Trump and Elon Musk, the billionaire head of Tesla who has said he plans to contribute $45 million a month to a pro-Trump super PAC.
Regardless, clean technology is becoming baked into the economy, Shomik Dutta, co-founder of the climate tech venture fund Overture, told The Washington Post. Market forces are advancing decarbonization, as alternative energy sources become cheaper, he added.
A primary thrust in the battle against climate change is achieving global net zero emissions. (That’s when greenhouse gas emissions from human sources are offset by the removal of those gases.) That’s a long way off.
“The path to true net zero is going to extend likely beyond our lifetimes,” Dutta said. “It’s very okay and encouraging for us to stop and celebrate great news.”
Indeed, because there’s always what may happen tomorrow. Or the day after tomorrow.
What they said
Jack Pitney, political science professor at Claremont McKenna College (@jpitney) on X.
“Dear J.D. Vance: my K-12 education came from the School Sisters of Notre Dame and the Sisters of St. Joseph. These childless women all thought they had a stake in our country, and they were right.”
