California voters apparently don’t want to make it more difficult to raise taxes, but they also aren’t inclined to make it any easier.
That’s one of the key findings of a poll released last week by the nonpartisan Public Policy Institute of California.
Three tax-related measures are headed for the statewide ballot in November and only one of them — from a bill carried by Assemblymember Chris Ward, D-San Diego — had majority among likely voters, according to the poll.
None of the fiscal ballot propositions raise or cut taxes, but the competing proposals could change the threshold needed for voters to approve them. The outcome of the election could result in significant changes enacted by Proposition 13, the landmark tax-cutting measure approved by voters in 1978, and other laws limiting taxes.
For now, voters appear inclined to leave things as they are, the PPIC poll suggests.
The California Business Roundtable and allied organizations qualified an initiative for the ballot that would raise the threshold for how local and state taxes are approved. Likely voters are opposed by nearly 2-1, with just 32 percent in and 63 percent opposed. Majorities across partisan and demographic groups and regions are poised to vote “no,” according to the poll.
The measure would require a two-thirds majority for local taxes, along with many fees that now can be approved without a public vote. Many local tax increases for a specific purpose proposed by local governments currently require two-thirds voter approval. General tax increases proposed by government are ed with a simple majority.
The legal landscape is changing, however. Repeated court decisions have held that citizens’ initiative tax measures placed on the ballot through signature-gathering now only need a simple majority, rather than the two-thirds.
Meanwhile, the pending initiative also would require statewide voter approval for taxes ed by the Legislature. (Caveat: Democrats have filed a lawsuit seeking to disqualify the initiative from the ballot. The California Supreme Court recently heard arguments about the case.)
A measure placed on the ballot by legislative Democrats would lower the approval for bonds and taxes to fund affordable housing and public infrastructure. Generally, local government bond measures require a two-thirds vote, but this proposal would lower that threshold to 55 percent, the same level currently required for school bonds.
Voters surveyed by PPIC appear cool to the proposal, with 53 percent opposed and 45 percent in .
The Ward measure on the ballot was a direct response to the business proposal. This one says any ballot measure to increase voter approval threshold must be meet that same level of voter approval. In other words, the business measure would have to receive a two-thirds vote to instead of a simple majority.
Likely voters favor the Ward proposal, 58 percent to 37 percent.
Further, those surveyed appeared in no mood to increase the state’s bonded indebtedness. Thirty-four percent agreed this is a “good time” and 64 percent said it’s a “bad time” to issue bonds for state programs and infrastructure projects.
The PPIC poll also revealed preferences and attitudes about various other elections and issues. The broad statewide questions were asked of 1,098 likely voters and the poll has a margin of error of 3.7 percent.
In the race for U.S. Senate, Rep. Adam Schiff, D-Burbank, holds a commanding lead over Republican former Los Angeles and San Diego baseball star Steve Garvey, 62 percent to 37 percent. That’s almost identical to voter preferences in an April PPIC poll.
The state’s Democratic leanings also were apparent when likely voters were asked about House district races. Democratic candidates were favored 62 percent to 36 percent. In 10 competitive districts, that spread narrows slightly, with 59 percent ing Democrats and 39 percent Republicans.
Gov. Gavin Newsom has a 47 percent job approval rating from likely voters, only slightly better than the Legislature’s approval rating of 43 percent.
Meanwhile, 42 percent of California adults said that the state’s budget situation is a “big problem,” while 54 percent approve of the governor’s revised budget released last month to address a gaping deficit. However, residents surveyed had more mixed reviews for specific proposals of spending cuts and use of the rainy-day fund reserve.
Sixty-eight percent said they expect bad financial times over the coming year, with San Diego among the most pessimistic regions on that score. The same percentage believe the U.S. will face bad economic times over the next year.
Among the issues, Californians by a wide margin said cost of living, inflation and the economy are their top concerns.
More than six in 10 Californians said the state is headed in the wrong direction, an indicator that has generally increased over the last couple of years. It may be little consolation, but even more state residents — 75 percent — said the nation is headed in the wrong direction.
There’s another divergence in state and national polling. Nationwide poll averages show the presidential race in a virtual tie, with former President Donald Trump ahead of President Joe Biden by less than a percentage point, according to the political website FiveThirtyEight.
PPIC again found Biden the overwhelming favorite among likely California voters, 55 percent to 31 percent. That’s been consistent since Biden’s election in 2020. Still, Trump has engaged in his own California dreaming.
“There’s no way we lose this state if there’s a real election,” he said at the California GOP convention in Anaheim last fall.
Trump has lost twice in California — in very real and legitimate elections — by landslide margins.
There are few guarantees about this year’s election, but one of them is the third time won’t be the charm for Trump in the Golden State.
