In the past three elections, the Democratic and Republican parties have poured millions of dollars into races in the 49th Congressional District.
Whether that kind of largess from the parties occurs this time around remains to be seen. If it doesn’t, that will be a clear sign the coastal district straddling the San Diego-Orange County line has become safer Democratic territory.
It’s too early to say definitively that the 49th won’t be considered a swing district as it has since 2016. But Democratic incumbent Mike Levin heads into November seeking a fourth term with growing advantages over Republican Matt Gunderson.
Republicans have made a serious run at Levin in the three previous elections to no avail, a couple of them under better circumstances for his GOP opponent.
Levin and Democrats won’t take anything for granted, but it seems both parties — particularly the Republicans — have potentially more competitive races elsewhere in the state.
For decades, one of five San Diego congressional districts has been a top target for both parties, though its boundaries have shifted over time.
“I don’t think it’s in the top list of battlegrounds anymore,” said Thad Kousser, political science professor at UC San Diego.
Others share that view. The analysts at The Cook Political Report list the 49th district as “likely” Democratic. They define the “likely” category as “not considered competitive races but at this point have the potential to become engaged.”
California may be the key to who controls the House of Representatives over the next two years. Numerous national stories identified the battleground districts before the primary and the 49th was mentioned in some of them, though less prominently than in past years. Don’t be surprised if this race is downplayed further in future stories, if it doesn’t disappear altogether.
While nothing is certain in politics, here are some key reasons why Levin is well positioned for the fall election.
The district. Stretching from Del Mar north to Mission Viejo, the 49th is a purple district, with Democrats holding a slim voter registration advantage. Once reliably Republican turf, the district’s Democratic trend was such that longtime GOP incumbent Darrell Issa barely won re-election in 2016 and decided not to run in 2018, when Levin first gained the seat.
Two years later, Issa was elected in a heavily Republican East County district.
The San Diego portion of the district has three times the number of ed voters as in the Orange County portion and is more Democratic. In his previous elections, Levin racked up big numbers south of the county line, overcoming the Republican influence to the north.
The district also consists largely of suburban areas where Democrats have gained ground nationwide, particularly after Donald Trump was elected president in 2016.
Kousser said the district could have been less conducive for Democrats. Following the 2020 census, he said an early map considered by the state redistricting commission pushed the 49th further into Orange County, but that version ultimately wasn’t adopted.
The incumbent. Levin has solid liberal credentials and is a member of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, which are regular points of attack for Republicans. But Kousser said Levin may be insulated from some of the national political winds with his attention to local issues. In particular, Levin has pushed legislation to help veterans, many of whom live in the district, and pursued environmental protection initiatives — including efforts to relocate radioactive waste stored at the shuttered San Onofre nuclear power plant.
Levin also has been a strong proponent of reproductive and abortion rights.
Not to be overlooked is that Levin is now a veteran incumbent, which brings a lot to the table — not the least of which is majorities of voters who have elected him repeatedly. He has proved to be a strong fundraiser, though he has received considerable Democratic Party . That would be an important trait if the party sees his odds for re-election increasing and channels resources to other campaigns.
The challenger. Gunderson is a car dealership owner running as a political outsider and stressing his real-world experience as a businessman. In 2022, he lost a state Senate race to former Encinitas Mayor Catherine Blakespear, a Democrat, by more than 4 points in a district that overlaps much of the 49th.
He stressed conservative themes during the primary, particularly regarding border enforcement, that helped him finish ahead of three other Republicans. (Levin was the only Democrat on the ballot). Gunderson showcased his endorsement from former House Speaker Newt Gingrich.
That approach won’t work in the general election in a region won convincingly by President Joe Biden in 2020 and likely will be a liability. He can try to finesse to the center on some issues — candidates of both parties often do — but Gingrich is a distinct symbol of hard-line conservatism.
After Tuesday’s primary, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee called Gunderson a “Trump-ing MAGA Republican.”
He told The San Diego Union-Tribune editorial board in 2022 he was “pro-choice” on abortion. But he opposed that year’s Proposition 1, which was overwhelmingly approved by voters to guarantee access to abortion in the state constitution. Gunderson said he wouldn’t vote for it because it could allow late-term abortions.
Earlier this year, he didn’t directly respond to an editorial board question about whether he would federal legislation restricting or protecting abortion rights.
“The Supreme Court has placed this issue in the hands of each state. California voters spoke clearly when they ed Proposition 1 in 2022,” he answered.
Several San Diego establishment Republicans and moderates, including former San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer, had endorsed Margarita Wilkinson, a media executive named one of the 50 top local Latino leaders in 2022 by the San Diego Business Journal and who had the wherewithal to self-fund her campaign. Wilkinson finished a distant third behind Gunderson.
With ballots still being counted, Levin had 51 percent of the primary votes as of Friday. Theoretically, even if Gunderson gained all the from the other Republican candidates, he would have still trailed Levin.
And that was in a relatively low-turnout primary that skewed Republican. The November turnout will be much larger and more heavily Democratic, as presidential elections often are.
All that will give the Republican Party much to ponder before they take another serious swing at the 49th district.
What they said
Lorena Gonzalez (@LorenaSGonzalez), head of the California Labor Federation on X.
“My unsolicited advice: Don’t be a sore winner. . . Also, I could’ve used this advice at various times in my life…”
