Tuesday’s election results — which showed area incumbents surviving but several losing huge chunks of the vote to much-lesser-known, lightly funded opponents — is likely to be interpreted by San Diego’s Democrat-dominated political establishment as to at least some degree an affirmation of its wisdom. But this assumption doesn’t appreciate how few voters believe City Hall’s claims of progress on housing, road fixes and quality of life. Looking to the general election, this view also doesn’t anticipate just how much city officials will be challenged this year in addressing painful fiscal headaches.
For Mayor Todd Gloria, the results are anything but a confirmation of voters’ faith in him. In barely winning half the vote against well-meaning opponents with little mastery of basic issues, the former City Council president and Assembly member showed he would have been in real political peril had he gone against a high-profile Democrat with little City Hall baggage. (Or, ahem, only old City Hall baggage — shout-out to Scott Peters.)
In the nearly eight months until the general election, Gloria’s going to have to be a tough-love leader. With the city facing a $167 million shortfall in its projected budget for fiscal 2024-25, he has already ordered a partial hiring freeze, sought to limit “non-essential” spending and reduced departments’ flexibility in changing how they use already-budgeted funds. Spending cuts are expected in categories including street paving, parks, libraries and arts programs. Gloria says when he releases his budget proposal in April, his goal will be protecting “core” services — public safety and infrastructure, homelessness and housing programs.
But this only hints at the headaches that await the future mayor. The idea that relying solely on spending cuts is the right way to go has little appeal to many elected officials. As U-T columnist Michael Smolens wrote recently, a parcel tax to pay for stormwater projects in the city of San Diego won unanimous from the City Council’s Rule Committee last month and looks headed for a November vote, where it would need two-thirds to under state law. He also noted that Gloria, the San Diego Municipal Employees Association and at least one council member are interested in adding 1 cent to the city’s sales tax. As a general tax, it only needs majority to become law.
Yes, January’s disastrous and unexpected flooding showed an urgent need to protect at-risk communities as the climate emergency worsens. And, yes, many California cities have higher sales taxes than San Diego without appearing to suffer as a result. And, yes, the mayor is right when he says it is crucial to “align the city’s expenditures to match our fiscal reality.”
But if this alignment also depends on San Diegans embracing higher taxes, unpleasant political realities may intrude. Even if there weren’t already a countywide half-cent sales tax for regional transportation projects on the November ballot — needing only majority for enactment — for higher city taxes will be a tough sell to scores of disillusioned voters.
Yet there is also a possibility that coming months won’t be as politically dangerous as they might have been for Gloria were he facing a different opponent. His November rival, San Diego police officer Larry Turner, offers populist takes on homelessness, housing reforms and crime that strike a chord with many. In his interview with The San Diego Union-Tribune Editorial Board last month, the political independent also offered sharp critiques of decades of city miscues, with the disastrous purchase of a decrepit, unusable office tower on Ash Street only one example of many. But the former lieutenant colonel in the Marines only offered superficial insights into city budget issues — and his initial embrace of a cockeyed homeless relocation scheme is not a good look for a would-be big-city mayor.
But here’s hoping we see Turner 2.0 in coming months. The former intelligence officer should seek to develop a broad understanding of the challenges the city faces — then offer his own ideas on how to improve the city’s responses. From bricklayers to teachers to coders to pro athletes, it’s a fact of life that many people improve on the job. If nascent politician Larry Turner follows this path, November’s mayoral race won’t necessarily be the pro forma affair many have expected since it emerged last year that Gloria would not have a high-profile challenger. That would be good for voters in a city with little confidence in its elected leaders.
