For several months there has been churning in San Diego government circles about the possibility of multiple tax increases on the November ballot.
The churning has intensified with the most recent proposal by San Diego City Council President Sean Elo-Rivera: a new parcel tax to pay for billions of dollars in needed flood control projects.
That makes a fifth tax measure that had been targeted for the fall city ballot, though one failed to get enough signatures to qualify and another is being delayed until 2026.
At the moment, only one tax measure is definitely on the ballot, and there’s lots of discussion and some private polling taking place about whether the other two also should move ahead.
Some advocates of the proposals say data doesn’t necessarily show two tax measures on the same ballot to be more than voters will accept. Be that as it may, there’s the question of whether three’s a crowd.
Further complicating the situation, statewide measures on the November ballot could lower or raise the voter-approval threshold for some of the tax increases.
Here’s a current scorecard of the local measures:
- A countywide half-cent sales tax for regional transportation projects is on the fall ballot. The county Registrar of Voters determined in early January that the proposal backed by labor and environmental organizations had collected enough signatures to qualify for the ballot. Under existing law, that tax will if a majority of voters approve.
- The parcel tax for stormwater projects in the city of San Diego was unanimously ed a week ago by the City Council’s Rules Committee, which is chaired by Elo-Rivera. Because it would be put on the ballot by the council rather than as an initiative, it would require a two-thirds majority approval under current law.
- A 1 cent sales tax increase has been proposed to help fund municipal operations in the city of San Diego. Discussions about this involving Councilmember Raul Campillo, Mayor Todd Gloria and the San Diego Municipal Employees Association, among others, have been taking place for some time. This would be a general tax increase rather than a specifically targeted one, and would require a simple majority for approval — for now.
The proposals that have fallen by the wayside are:
- A tax in the city of San Diego on real estate sales of more than $2.5 million, which was intended to fund affordable-housing projects. The San Diego Housing Federation, the main proponent of the measure, decided to put off the proposal until 2026, according to Axios San Diego.
- Another city parcel tax to upgrade parks and libraries. Last week, a Superior Court judge rejected a lawsuit contending city and county officials improperly determined the signature-gathering effort fell short, according to David Garrick of The San Diego Union-Tribune.
Beyond the transportation tax, the statewide propositions could affect the calculus and jockeying over the other two.
A proposal going before voters would require local fees and taxes to be approved by a two-thirds majority of voters. That includes taxes raised through the citizens initiative signature-gathering process. This could mean the transportation sales tax and the city general sales tax would need a two-thirds vote.
That statewide measure is ed by the California Business Roundtable and the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association.
A competing ballot proposal would lower the threshold for approving many local special taxes and bonds for public projects and services from a two-thirds majority to 55 percent. That proposal was put on the ballot by the Legislature and is ed by organized labor and Democrats, among others.
That could remove the two-thirds requirement for the San Diego flood protection parcel tax, but moving forward could be a gamble with that unknown. Two-thirds is a very difficult threshold to meet for any tax.
Adding more complexity to the mix is yet another statewide measure that would require any ballot measure that seeks to raise the voter-threshold for approval to receive that level of for age. That means the Business Roundtable measure could need to get two-thirds for victory.
The legislation putting that measure on the ballot was carried by Assemblymember Chris Ward, D-San Diego.
Beyond consideration of the cumulative weight of more than one local tax measure on the ballot, there’s plenty for advocates and critics to argue over.
The flooding last month brought a sense of urgency to improving stormwater drainage. A stormwater tax was proposed two years ago, but the idea was dropped after polling showed it lacked sufficient .
Elo-Rivera revived the proposal a little over a week following the Jan. 22 deluge. Virtually everyone agrees that flood control needs improvement. But there has been a lot of anger among residents that the city has fallen short there, not just in building new projects, but for not maintaining existing channels and culverts to keep them from getting backed up.
It remains to be seen whether that sense of mismanagement could make voters pause before dipping into their own pockets.
Taxes for transportation have had some success in San Diego over the decades. Even a controversial sales tax increase proposal for roads and transit in 2016 received a strong majority of votes, but did not receive the two-thirds necessary.
The sales tax measure on the November ballot would help fund a long-range transportation plan developed by the San Diego Association of Governments.
But the agency has been disrupted by internal strife between board and s. Now parts of that plan are uncertain. SANDAG just announced it will further review other options on one of the marquee projects — a new transit link to the airport — that has been a big selling point for the tax.
Meanwhile, the city of San Diego has been understaffed across the board, is facing growing budget deficits and is struggling to maintain services. Proponents of the 1 cent sales tax increase, like those of the stormwater tax, point out that San Diego’s tax burden is less than in other cities.
But, also like the stormwater tax, critics question the wisdom of giving more money to a city they don’t think has spent wisely.
Gloria is ing both the city and transportation sales tax proposals, and has said more money is necessary for flood control.
“We have to have more revenue — there’s no two ways about it,” he told the Union-Tribune.
Demonstrating a clear need that sending government agencies more money for the public well-being can help make the case for raising taxes.
But making that case three times over wouldn’t be easy.
