Democrats look at polls and wring their hands at the lack of enthusiasm of some voting blocks that should be solidly in President Joe Biden’s corner.
This especially has been the case regarding young voters. One explanation for this can be found, among other places, in San Diego — a region where Biden won big over then-President Donald Trump in 2020.
The Democratic president almost certainly will carry the Democratic county again in an anticipated November rematch with Trump. There’s not much doubt Biden will capture the youth vote here and across the country.
But if 18- to 29-year-old voters turn out the way they have in the past couple of election cycles, there are plenty of analysts who say Biden will lose, and possibly take enough Democrats with him to give Republicans control of both houses of Congress. But then, such angst is not atypical for Democrats in an election year.
Many economic indicators suggest the country is surging into more prosperous times, yet Biden gets little credit for that, according to public opinion polls.
But young people disproportionately are renters, and the growing economy has done little to keep high rent from sucking up large chunks of income from tenants. That may be changing a bit.
Rents across the country are dropping, even in high-priced San Diego, though other parts of the country are seeing bigger reductions. This is partially the result of a significant increase in apartment construction.
Phillip Molnar of The San Diego Union-Tribune, citing a Zumper real estate study, this week reported that the monthly rent for a one-bedroom apartment in the county was $2,330 in January. That’s a lot, but it is down 1 percent over last year. Earlier, Molnar noted that rents have consistently gone down over the past several months.
The high cost of housing in San Diego and across the state — to buy or rent — is hardly a surprise.
But it hasn’t been just a California problem. The general standard for affordability is that housing costs and utilities should not exceed 30 percent of household income. The t Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University last week issued a report based on 2022 data that showed half of renters in the United States were paying more than that.
About half of those people were paying 50 percent of their income toward housing.
While inflation also has been dropping, the cost of groceries and some other consumer goods have not shrunk as much. Like housing costs, that hits lower-income earners — which young people tend to be — hardest.
That helps explain why a negative view of Biden and the economy is outsized among young voters, according to polls.
Seven in 10 Americans between the ages of 18 and 29 believed that the economy was either “very bad” or “fairly bad,” according to a poll conducted by the Institute of Politics at Harvard Kennedy School in October and November.
The Harvard survey concluded young people appeared less likely to vote in 2024 than they did in 2020, which was a record-setting year for youth turnout.
The poll showed a disconnect between young Americans’ personal financial situation and their views of the American economy. But in politics, perception can be the reality.
A survey released this month suggests a slightly improved outlook. With the caveat that different polls use different methodologies, a CNBC/Generation Lab poll showed that nearly the same percentage of young people thought the economy was “fair” (38 percent) as “poor” (41 percent).
Still, young voters were the most gloomy among all Democratic age groups, according to a January poll by the Pew Research Center.
The Pew survey said 44 percent of Democrats have positive views of the economy — the highest share of Joe Biden’s presidency. But among 18- to 29-year-olds, only 1 in 4 had a positive view.
Biden’s job approval rating remains underwater across all age groups of American adults, but more so with young people.
The Democratic hand-wringing may have elevated to hyperventilating with the release of a couple of late-December surveys. The New York Times/Siena College poll had Trump with a 7-point advantage over Biden among ed voters aged 18-29. A USA Today/Suffolk University poll of ed voters under 35 had Trump leading by 4 percentage points.
Exit polls in 2020 concluded Biden defeated Trump by as much as 25 points among 18- to 29-year-old voters.
The recent surveys triggered a backlash, with analysts questioning the polls, or at least trying to give broader context to what may be happening. Few disputed a softening of for Biden, even if they expressed concern about small sample sizes of young voters and surveys ing ed, rather than likely, voters.
But then, young voters were never wild about Biden to begin with, particularly among Democrats who flocked to Sen. Bernie Sanders in the 2020 presidential primary. Yet they turned out for Biden that November.
Young Democratic-leaning voters, like those in all age groups, were motivated in large part by their opposition to Trump. Biden gave positive reinforcement by pledging to protect abortion access, combat climate change and provide student debt relief.
But as president he was thwarted by the Supreme Court on abortion as well as his plan to cancel up to $400 billion in student debt. He was able to erase $127 billion in student debt, but to some people it seemed like he was coming up short.
Progress on climate change also seemed incremental to many, not the bold progress they were looking for.
Further, his for Israel during its war in Gaza has earned him the wrath of many Democrats, young or not. Despite the largely popular cause of going after the Hamas terror group, the widespread civilian casualties and destruction have pushed Biden to press Israel to change its approach.
It’s not unusual for presidents to face warning signs as they head into re-election. Young voter was in question for President Barack Obama when he ran for re-election in 2012. He won them by a wide margin, though was down from 2008.
Trump had his questions in 2020, particularly with eroding from suburban Republicans. That hasn’t changed. What has is Trump in this election is also facing multiple criminal indictments.
In addition to young voters, Democrats fret about Biden losing among Black voters. His campaign is stepping up its appeal to those and other groups vital to the Democratic coalition. Biden and surrogates are emphasizing what he has done to benefit them — even if it didn’t live up to expectations in their view.
The November 2024 decision for young people, Blacks and others again may come down to how they view the prospect of another Trump presidency.
But if the country is truly experiencing rising prosperity, Biden had better hope it spreads more widely in the coming months.
