San Diego County will be under a tropical storm warning for the first time in history this weekend due to Hilary, a breathtaking cyclone that will produce “potentially catastrophic” flooding locally and in other parts of the southwestern U.S., the National Hurricane Center said Friday.
The advisory was changed from a watch to a warning Friday night and contributed to the Navy’s decision to send many of its active-ready San Diego-based warships to sea on Saturday to make it easier to manage and protect vessels in port that are undergoing maintenance. The carrier USS Nimitz was seen leaving the harbor at 9:30 a.m. Saturday.
The statements came as the National Weather Service was getting highly specific, stating that the county will experience a volatile mix of extremely heavy rain, wild winds and booming surf that could trigger mudslides, knock out power, destroy roads and bite chunks out of beaches. The greatest threat is to the eastern half of the county.
Hilary weakened to a category 3 hurricane before dawn Saturday and took a slightly more eastern track, which will reduce projected rainfall on the San Diego County coastline.
But there still will be a deluge. The weather service said Hilary will produce 1.5 to 2.5 inches of at the coast, 2 to 2.5 inches across inland valleys, 5 to 7 inches in Julian and Mount Palomar, 7 to 10 inches at Mount Laguna, and 4 to 5 inches at Borrego Springs and Ocotillo Wells.
The rain will begin on Saturday, and could be significant enough to affect the second game of a Padres double-header at Petco Park. That game starts at 5:40 p.m. But Hilary , which is now moving north-northwest at 16 mph, won’t reach its peak until late Sunday and early Monday. During that period, the wind will gust upwards of 40 mph in many coastal areas, 50 mph or higher in places such as Alpine and Ramona, 64 to 67 mph in El Cajon, Campo and Mount Laguna. Gusts could reach 80 mph at Ocotillo Wells. Driving is expected to be treacherous on Interstate 8, near the border of San Diego and Imperial counties. Tornadoes could embed with rain cells in that area.
The surf will crest to 7 feet or higher north of Carlsbad, and the entire coastline will be raked by strong longshore currents and rip currents.
“These threats represent a life-threatening situation for San Diego and the rest of Southern California,” said John Suk, meteorologist-in-charge of the weather service office in Rancho Bernardo.
His colleague, Alex Tardy, said, “It does look like the eye-wall (of Hilary) will make it into San Diego County.”
UC San Diego re-positioned a wave buoy off Baja California Friday, hoping to get a good look at one of nature’s most violent phenomena.
“The largest impacts from Hilary will be felt Sunday, as the system moves into San Diego County and points north,” the weather service said. “Expect stronger and shifting winds, and widespread heavy rain as she es Sunday afternoon and night.
"Bands of heavy rain and flooding are expected, with dangerous and potentially catastrophic impacts across the desert mountain slopes and deserts."
The possibility of trouble caused a stir across San Diego County.
Emergency crews hustled to place “No parking” signs in low-lying and flood-risk areas of San Diego, including along the San Diego River, which could near flood stage in the Fashion Valley area over the weekend.
Workers also quickly moved to secure equipment at San Diego International Airport. So did General Dynamics-NASSCO, whose spokesperson, Brian Adams, said the shipyard “will be double-securing anything that can move.”
There was a mad dash for supplies at a Home Depot in Clairemont, which temporarily ran out of bags and sand. The Padres announced that they would hold a double-header at Petco Park on Saturday, instead of single games on Saturday and Sunday.
San Diego State University said that its main campus and satellite in Imperial Valley will transition to virtual instruction on Monday so students don’t have to drive in the storm. Cal State San Marcos said it “will be canceling or moving to virtual formats any in-person events scheduled for” Sunday and Monday.
Father Joe’s Villages in San Diego said it would offer temporary overnight shelter on Saturday and Sunday nights.
Police and fire agencies across the region were beefing up staffing as the storm barrels north. For San Diego Fire-Rescue Department, extra staffing starts Saturday, and peak staffing hits Sunday.
“We are preparing for impact both coastal and inland,” Fire-Rescue Assistant Chief David Gerboth said Friday, moments before he was to jump on a conference call with the National Weather Service.
The lifeguard division will have seven swift-water rescue teams in place — “We’ve never had seven teams during the summer,” he said — with another three swift-water rescue teams among firefighting crews.
“We are bringing in more resources than we would for a winter storm. We are leaning forward to be sure that if what is predicted materializes, we are ready,” Gerboth said.
He said lifeguard crews will also be out warning people of water danger, but also of the danger of cliff collapses spurred by erosion, high winds and storm surge.
In addition, San Diego County Fire Department, operated by Cal Fire, will have two dedicated swift-water rescue teams — one in the north, one in the south — ready to go.
“They are available for regional response. For any agency that needs assistance, county fire will provide it,” Cal Fire Capt. Mike Cornette said.
In Baja California, classes and non-essential public activities will be suspended from Saturday afternoon until Monday, and 80 shelters will be set up throughout the state, said Gov. Marina del Pilar Ávila.
Mexico’s President Andrés Manuel López Obrador reached out to the state to offer if needed, she added.
“If your home is safe, be prepared to stay in it,” said Salvador Cervantes, head of Civil Protection in Baja California. “If your home is not safe or is in a risk zone, request assistance to move to a temporary shelter or to a relative’s home in a safe area.”
Events such as festivals and concerts were already beginning to take a hit.
Vista’s Moonlight Stage Productions canceled its Sunday night performance of “42nd Street,” which was scheduled for an outdoor stage.
In Ensenada, two massive events that were to take place on Sunday were rescheduled, including a popular Paella contest and the International Half Marathon.
San Diego-area concert promoters were taking a wait-and-see approach to determine if possible heavy rains and winds fueled by Hilary would require any shows scheduled for Saturday or Sunday to be postponed, and will post updates on their websites.
Pala Casino Spa Resort on Friday announced it was moving Saturday’s outdoor Pala show by Smokey Robinson indoors to the Pala Events Center.
The UCSD concert Sunday by Eliades Ochoa has been postponed. No new date yet
Staff writers Pam Kragen, Teri Figueroa, George Varga, Lori Weisberg and Alexandra Mendoza contributed to this report.
