Our local governments — city and county — are facing some major, even monumental, decisions. While having to deal with expected budget deficiencies for the near term, they are looking 30 to 80 years into the future to plan for critical issues, such as water, climate change, transportation and housing.
This is good. Dealing with these challenges tends to be dreadfully slow, so the process needs to be attended to now. We can agree that there are current and imminent problems to be addressed.
With prodding or from local leaders, some agencies are responding with big and bold — and pricey — initiatives. There is nothing wrong with this, as long as the visions are balanced with substance and reality.
In practice, in order to achieve quantum leaps, visionaries have to be let loose to imagine the possibilities. This appears to have happened at the San Diego Association of Governments where SANDAG Executive Director Hassan Ikhrata has had a talented team creating a vision that would become the basis for a significantly updated 30-year Regional Transportation Plan.
On Aug. 14, 2020, at a 4-hour meeting, SANDAG presented a blueprint for an extensive build-up of public transit combining high-speed rail, light rail, busses, transit hubs and short-range shuttles that would have us rely less on our cars. This is now being reviewed by the new SANDAG board.
I’ve studied the ing documentation, representing a huge investigation of research and planning, and was impressed by the quantity and quality of information. There was obviously a lot of labor expended to the director’s vision without knowing what kind of there would be from either the new board or the public.
Early commentary indicated concern that the vision moved away from previous commitments to widen and improve major roadways. In the new vision, the main arteries would instead have modifications to existing lanes, using advanced technology to restrict lanes to similar types of traffic as the loads change. The greater portion of the vision deals with extensive improvements and additions for mass transit and bicycles.
The concepts appear to be well thought out, although there will be considerable pushback for various aspects. The public and elected officials are likely to question some items as to whether they are needed and/or worth the cost. The vision team claims to have based the recommended designs on vast public inputs, but will the public be willing to make the cultural changes that would be required? Especially under the microscope will be the proposed high-speed train from Oceanside to the Mexican border, and dedicated bicycle paths, fully separated from the roadways.
There is nothing in the published vision that discusses cost or other financial aspects. Yet, somehow, it is presented as a $177 billion program, over a 30-year period. Also, missing from the package was any discussion on how the proposed $177B cost would be funded, other than the intent to ask the voters to adding a 1 percent dedicated transit tax to the county sales tax. This would be in addition to the existing one-half percent TransNet tax.
Using my professional experience, which focused on consulting in the management of programs and projects, I will be asking some critical questions as I review the program over the next few months. I’m waiting for requested information from our county supervisors and SANDAG.
How big is $177 billion? This big: $177,000,000,000. That’s a lot of zeros. I have trouble fathoming how big that really is. So I did the math. It comes to $5,221 per household, per year. Only a part of that will come directly from the sales tax. Based on tax revenue from TransNet over the past couple of years, I calculated that about $930 million per year would come from the 1 ½ percent transit tax — equivalent to $823 per household. We don’t know where the rest of the $5 billion per year is coming from.
We also don’t know how the $177 billion price tag was determined. I do know from experience that early plans tend to underestimate schedule and costs and overestimate revenue. Part of the revenue would be from ridership — where optimism tends to inflate the estimates. Add to that the need to factor in scope increases, risk mitigation, unseen physical impediments, legal impediments and weather/natural disasters and we’re probably looking at a significantly higher number. We need only to look at the California bullet train for useful guidance.
The 2021 Regional Plan calls for a sea change in how San Diegians travel, moving away from cars and embracing public transit and bicycles. In future columns, I expect to research and comment on how receptive our neighbors will be to attempt to change our attachment to cars. And we’ll follow the money.
If you’re interested in this futuristic, culture-changing program I suggest that you pull up the comprehensive, 36-page fact sheet “San Diego Forward: The 2021 Regional Plan” prepared by SANDAG.
A Rancho Bernardo resident, Levine is a retired project management consultant and the author of three books on the subject.
